Predictive modelling for COVID-19 outbreak control: lessons from the navy cluster in Sri Lanka

In response to an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) within a cluster of Navy personnel in Sri Lanka commencing from 22nd April 2020, an aggressive outbreak management program was launched by the Epidemiology Unit of the Ministry of Health. To predict the possible number of cases within...

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Published in军事医学研究（英文版） Vol. 9; no. 1; pp. 138 - 140
Main Authors N.W.A.N.Y.Wijesekara, Nayomi Herath, K.A.L.C.Kodituwakku, H.D.B.Herath, Samitha Ginige, Thilanga Ruwanpathirana, Manjula Kariyawasam, Sudath Samaraweera, Anuruddha Herath, Senarupa Jayawardena, Deepa Gamge
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Disaster Preparedness and Response Division,Ministry of Health,385,Rev.Baddegama Wimalawansa Thero Mawatha,Colombo 01000,Sri Lanka%Epidemiology Unit of the Ministry of Health,Colombo 01000,Sri Lanka%Sri Lanka Navy,Colombo 01100,Sri Lanka 2022
Subjects
COVID-19
SIR model
Predictive modelling
Outbreak management
Navy cluster
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Summary:In response to an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) within a cluster of Navy personnel in Sri Lanka commencing from 22nd April 2020, an aggressive outbreak management program was launched by the Epidemiology Unit of the Ministry of Health. To predict the possible number of cases within the susceptible population under four social distancing scenarios, the COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics (CHIME) was used. With increasing social distancing, the epidemiological curve flattened, and its peak shifted to the right. The observed or actually reported number of cases was above the projected number of cases at the onset; however, subsequently, it fell below all predicted trends. Predictive modelling is a useful tool for the control of outbreaks such as COVID-19 in a closed community.
ISSN:2095-7467