Societal decisions about climate mitigation will have dramatic impacts on eutrophication in the 21 st century

Excessive nitrogen runoff leads to degraded water quality, harming human and ecosystem health. We examine the impact of changes in land use and land management for six combinations of socioeconomic pathways and climate outcomes, and find that societal choices will substantially impact riverine total...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inNature communications Vol. 10; no. 1; p. 939
Main Authors Sinha, E, Michalak, A M, Calvin, K V, Lawrence, P J
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published England 26.02.2019
Subjects
Agriculture - trends
Asia
Climate Change
Ecosystem
Eutrophication
Humans
Models, Theoretical
Nitrogen - analysis
Rivers - chemistry
Social Environment
Socioeconomic Factors
United States
Weather
Asia
United States
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Summary:Excessive nitrogen runoff leads to degraded water quality, harming human and ecosystem health. We examine the impact of changes in land use and land management for six combinations of socioeconomic pathways and climate outcomes, and find that societal choices will substantially impact riverine total nitrogen loading (+54% to -7%) for the continental United States by the end of the century. Regional impacts will be even larger. Increased loading is possible for both high emission and low emission pathways, due to increased food and biofuel demand, respectively. Some pathways, however, suggest that limiting climate change and eutrophication can be achieved concurrently. Precipitation changes will further exacerbate loading, resulting in a net increase of 1 to 68%. Globally, increases in cropland area and agricultural intensification will likely impact vast portions of Asia. Societal and climate trends must therefore both be considered in designing strategies for managing inland and coastal water quality.
ISSN:2041-1723