New Model Uses Longitudinal Data to Predict HCC Risk in Patients with HCV-Related Cirrhosis

• Published in: HCPLive
• Main Author: Brooks, Abigail
• Format: Trade Publication Article
• Language: English
• Published: Cranbury MultiMedia Healthcare Inc 28.11.2023
• Subjects: Biomarkers; Hepatitis C; Liver cancer; Liver cirrhosis; Surveillance; Variables; United States > US
• ISSN: 2767-7168; 2767-7168

Despite the advent of direct-acting antivirals for HCV treatment and eradication, the residual risk of HCC persists and must continue to be monitored even after SVR is achieved.3 To improve the accuracy of predictive models for HCC risk in patients with HCV-related cirrhosis, Yanzheng Zou, of the department of epidemiology at Nanjing Medical University in China, and colleagues used the fast covariance estimation method to extract informative features from longitudinal patient data and incorporated them into the random survival forest (RSF) model. Investigators randomly assigned 70% (n = 280) of participants to a training set used to develop the baseline and longitudinal models and 30% (n = 120) to a validation set for assessing the models' performance, noting there were no significant differences in the baseline characteristics between the groups.1 The index date of the study was the start of DAA treatment. The longitudinal predictors, including AFP, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, ALT, AST, cholinesterase, ALP, GGT, total protein, and albumin, were subject to change over time and were measured multiple times after study enrollment when patients returned for medical visits during the follow-up period.1 Using the fast covariance estimation method, a new covariance-based functional principal component analysis method for extracting informative features from longitudinal data and presenting them as scores, these measures were included in the RSF model as time-independent covariates along with the 2 baseline variables.1 During a median follow-up time of approximately 5 years, 25 (8.9%) patients in the training set and 11 (9.2%) patients in the validation set developed HCC.