Country Forecast Egypt November 2019 Updater

• Published in: Country Forecast. Egypt
• Format: Report
• Language: English
• Published: New York The Economist Intelligence Unit N.A., Incorporated 01.11.2019
• Subjects: Current accounts; Economic forecasts; Economic growth; Economic indicators; Economic structure; Elections; Employment; External debt; Fiscal policy; Forecasts; Foreign exchange rates; Foreign investment; GDP; Gross Domestic Product; Inflation; International relations; International trade; Local elections; Monetary policy; Natural gas; Policy making; Political risk; Politics; Prices; Productivity; Purchasing power parity; Terms of trade; Wages & salaries; Egypt; Africa
• ISSN: 0966-9507; 2048-9307

Egypt is now able to raise funds elsewhere; it is therefore unlikely to seek a new funded IMF programme, but it has indicated interest in a looser, unfunded arrangement in order to maintain reform momentum. Since 2016 the government has pushed through major reforms, including the introduction of value-added tax (VAT); the initial rate of 13% was raised to 14% in fiscal year 2018/19 (July-June). Reforms have brought in significant new foreign investment, but some hurdles remain, making exporting industries uncompetitive. [...]the influence of powerful interest groups within government, especially the extensive and growing business interests of the military, will limit the effectiveness of the reform process and private-sector development. Employment, wages and prices Employment, wages and prices 2015a 2016a 2017a 2018b 2019b 2020c 2021c 2022c 2023c 2024c The labour market (av) Labour force (m) 28.4 28.9 29.5 28.9a 29.5 31.0 32.2 33.3 34.3 35.0 Labour force (% change) 1.8 1.8 2.1 -2.0a 2.2 4.9 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.1 Unemployment rate (%) 12.8 12.5 11.8 9.9a 8.9 8.6 8.4 8.2 8.1 7.9 Wage and price inflation (% except labour costs per hour) Consumer prices (av) 10.4 13.8 29.5 14.4a 8.1 5.3 5.7 6.5 6.3 5.6 Producer prices (av) -3.1 13.8 33.2 24.1a 4.5 2.5 9.2 7.0 6.4 6.0 GDP deflator (av) 10.0 6.3 24.7 21.4 12.9 7.1 5.4 6.4 5.9 5.2 Private consumption deflator (av) 10.8 7.0 29.3 22.6 8.3 4.8 3.9 5.5 4.9 4.6 Government consumption deflator (av) 6.5 3.7 10.4 4.1 10.0 6.3 5.7 6.5 6.1 5.4 Fixed investment deflator (av) 9.9 5.8 16.5 23.0 15.9 8.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Average nominal wages (av) 9.1 7.2 11.5 5.1a 10.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.0 7.5 Average real wages (% change) -1.2b -5.9b -13.9b -8.1 1.8 3.5 3.1 2.4 1.6 1.8 Unit labour costs (E£-based; av) 10.2b 7.6b 13.5b 0.8 8.1 7.3 5.4 5.2 4.6 5.3 Unit labour costs (US$-based) 1.1b -17.6b -35.9b 0.9 14.4 11.8 6.2 6.2 5.6 5.7 Labour costs per hour (E£) 16.8b 18.2b 20.4b 21.7 24.1 26.5 28.9 31.5 34.0 36.9 Labour costs per hour (US$) 2.2b 1.8b 1.1b 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3 a Actual.b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates.c Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. Ministry of Planning/Central Bank of Egypt, Annual Report; Monthly Bulletin Oil production: EGPC Cotton: CBE, Annual Report; Monthly Bulletin Tourism: CBE, Annual Report; Monthly Bulletin; IDSC, Monthly Economic Bulletin Suez Canal revenue: SCA, Annual Report; Monthly Report; IDSC, Monthly Economic Bulletin General business indicators: IDSC, Monthly Economic Bulletin Consumer prices: IMF, IFS; IDSC, Monthly Economic Bulletin Exchange rates: IMF, IFS; IDSC, Monthly Economic Bulletin Budget deficit: IDSC, Monthly Economic Bulletin Population and growth: CAPMAS, Statistical Yearbook Literacy rates: CAPMAS, Statistical Yearbook Labour force: CAPMAS, Statistical Yearbook; UN, Human Development Report GDP per head: US$ GDP divided by population Balance of payments: IMF, IFS; CBE, Annual Report; Monthly Bulletin; IDSC, Monthly Economic Bulletin Foreign direct investment: IMF, IFS; CBE Debt: World Bank, International Debt Statistics Government budget data and current and constant price national accounts data refer to fiscal years ending June 30th Market opportunities industry data are subject to considerable revision owing to differences at source Unemployment data are based on a series provided by the Ministry of Planning.