Anatomy of an Upset

Democratic Governor Jerry Brown won reelection in the Golden State by nearly 20 points, but he lost his legislative supermajority when a $2.1 million independent expenditure helped carry Republican newcomer Catharine Baker to a surprise state legislative victory in the most unlikely of places: the S...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inCampaigns & Elections no. 329; p. 38
Main Authors Fisfis, James, Leavitt, Mike
Format Trade Publication Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Plainsboro Votenet Solutions Inc 01.01.2015
Subjects
Candidates
Chambers of commerce
Democracy
Endorsements
Focus groups
Political advertising
Politics
Primaries & caucuses
State elections
Voter behavior
California
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Summary:Democratic Governor Jerry Brown won reelection in the Golden State by nearly 20 points, but he lost his legislative supermajority when a $2.1 million independent expenditure helped carry Republican newcomer Catharine Baker to a surprise state legislative victory in the most unlikely of places: the San Francisco Bay Area. Two political factors provided the backdrop for the Republican upset. First, a Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) strike disrupted the lives of voters in this commuter-corridor district. This strike quickly became a political fault line in a bitter intra-Democratic primary battle between centrist Steve Glazer, who opposed the BART strike, and labor-backed Tim Sbranti, a former political chief of the California Teachers Association, who supported it. The second political factor was labors aggressive and divisive $2.4 million primary campaign against Steve Glazer, tying him to tobacco interests. Democratic and nonpartisan voters received that message at least four times in the mail in the last week of the campaign. It would soon be reinforced on television.
ISSN:2160-603X