As Crisis Brews, Iran Hits Bumps on Atomic Path

• Published in: The New York times
• Main Author: WILLIAM J. BROAD and DAVID E. SANGER
• Format: Newspaper Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York, N.Y New York Times Company 05.03.2006
• Edition: Late Edition (East Coast)
• Subjects: Arms control & disarmament; Nuclear weapons; Sanctions; Iran
• ISSN: 0362-4331

Estimates of just when Iran might acquire a nuclear weapon range from alarmist views of only a few months to roughly 15 years. American intelligence agencies say it will take 5 to 10 years for Iran to manufacture the fuel for its first atomic bomb. Most forecasters acknowledge that secret Iranian advances or black market purchases could produce a technological surprise. A further uncertainty is defining the exact point at which Iran's nuclear program would become an unstoppable threat. While most analysts identify the greatest danger as when Iran can produce nuclear fuel -- the hardest part of the bomb venture, far more difficult than designing a warhead -- others, particularly the Israelis, say the tipping point may come earlier, when Tehran has accumulated a critical mass of atomic knowledge. After the [Clinton] administration persuaded Moscow to back out, Iran accelerated its secret drive to copy Dr. [Abdul Qadeer Khan]'s centrifuges. It also started building the huge enrichment plant near Natanz, in central Iran. The pilot factory there was to house 1,000 centrifuges; the main plant would shelter 50,000 machines underground.