The U.S. Plots a New Coup Against Noriega But using force to get rid of Panama's strongman will only keep the military in power ALL EDITIONS

• Published in: Newsday
• Main Author: By Steve C. Ropp. Steve C. Ropp, a professor of
• Format: Newspaper Article
• Language: English
• Published: Long Island, N.Y Newsday LLC 12.12.1989
• Edition: Combined editions
• Subjects: Bush, George; Noriega, Manuel A

What makes a coup highly likely within the next several months is not so much developments in Panama but rather U.S. domestic politics. President George Bush was sharply criticized by conservative Republicans following the failed October coup for what they claimed was a lack of will in defending U.S. hemispheric interests against communism. Bush's presumed failure in Panama was seen as the precursor for a larger pattern of failure throughout the region in months to come. In sum, a U.S.-sponsored coup is to be expected fairly soon because the domestic costs to the Bush administration of the failed October intervention have proven to be quite high. Not only are there few perceived costs associated with U.S. sponsorship, there are also numerous perceived benefits. A successful coup would silence both liberal and conservative congressional hawks while it satisfied the American public's yearning to be rid of a major symbol of the hemispheric drug problem. Public opinion polls show that 57 percent of Americans now favor covert action against [Manuel Antonio Noriega], up from 46 percent in May. Strategically, the primary problem of a new U.S.-backed coup is that it would reinforce the internal balance of Panamanian political forces that has already resulted in 20 years of military rule. Because military officers would be recruited to lead the coup, these officers would view themselves as national saviors if it succeeds. The coup would also re-emphasize the traditional historical role of the United States as a major player in Panamanian politics, making it difficult to shed this role in coming years. The civilian opposition, already viewed by some as weak, would be stripped of its remaining legitimacy as an independent political force.