ON THE LIKELY MAGNITUDE, EXTENT, AND DURATION OF AN ANTI-IRAQ WAR

THIS STUDY WAS INITIALLY UNDERTAKEN FOR INTERNATIONAL CONFLICTS IN LATE NOVEMBER, 1990. THE MAIN CONCLUSION WAS THE FORECAST THAT THE MAGNITUDE OF AN IRAQ-UNITED NATIONS WAR (THE COMMON LOGARITHIM OF TOTAL COMBATANT FATALITIES) WOULD RANGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 5.0 (HUNDRED THOUSAND) AND 6 (LOW MILLION)...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inThe Journal of conflict resolution Vol. 35; no. 3; pp. 387 - 411
Main Author Cioffi-Revilla, C
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published 01.09.1991
Subjects
CONFLICT
GULF CRISIS FOLLOWING IRAQI INVASION OF KUWAIT IN 1990
IRAQ
WAR
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Summary:THIS STUDY WAS INITIALLY UNDERTAKEN FOR INTERNATIONAL CONFLICTS IN LATE NOVEMBER, 1990. THE MAIN CONCLUSION WAS THE FORECAST THAT THE MAGNITUDE OF AN IRAQ-UNITED NATIONS WAR (THE COMMON LOGARITHIM OF TOTAL COMBATANT FATALITIES) WOULD RANGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 5.0 (HUNDRED THOUSAND) AND 6 (LOW MILLION). AS OF MARCH 23, 1991, IRAQI COMBATANT FATALITIES ALONE--FROM THE DESERT STORM PHASE OF THE PERSIAN GULF WAR-- WERE ESTIMATED AT "MORE THAN 100,000." THEREFORE, THE FORECAST CONTAINED IN THIS ARTICLE WAS CORRECT, AND SHORT-RANGE WARNING OF AN IMMINENT SEVERE WAR WAS TIMELY. ADDITIONAL FATALITIES IN THE CIVIL WAR INDUCED BY THE OVERWHELMING UN VICTORY WILL SIMPLY MOVE THE REALIZED MAGNITUDE OF THE IRAQ-UN PHASE OF THE PERSIAN GULF WAR CLOSER TO THE MIDRANGE OF THE FORECAST.
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ISSN:0022-0027