Estimating reach-specific fish movement probabilities in rivers with a Bayesian state-space model: application to sea lamprey passage and capture at dams

• Published in: Canadian journal of fisheries and aquatic sciences Vol. 71; no. 11; p. 17
• Main Authors: Holbrook, C M, Johnson, N S, Steibel, J P, Twohey, M B, Binder, T R, Krueger, C C, Jones, M L
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: 01.01.2014
• Subjects: Freshwater; Hypophthalmichthys; Petromyzon marinus; Petromyzontidae; USA, Great Lakes; North America, Great Lakes; USA, Michigan; Canada, Great Lakes; North America, Huron L; USA, Michigan, Cheboygan R
• ISSN: 0706-652X; 1205-7533

Improved methods are needed to evaluate barriers and traps for control and assessment of invasive sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) in the Great Lakes. A Bayesian state-space model provided reach-specific probabilities of movement, including trap capture and dam passage, for 148 acoustic tagged invasive sea lamprey in the lower Cheboygan River, Michigan, a tributary to Lake Huron. Reach-specific movement probabilities were combined to obtain estimates of spatial distribution and abundance needed to evaluate a barrier and trap complex for sea lamprey control and assessment. Of an estimated 21,828 - 29,300 adult sea lampreys in the river, 0%-2%, or 0-514 untagged lampreys, could have passed upstream of the dam, and 46%-61% were caught in the trap. Although no tagged lampreys passed above the dam (0/148), our sample size was not sufficient to consider the lock and dam a complete barrier to sea lamprey. Results also showed that existing traps are in good locations because 83%-96% of the population was vulnerable to existing traps. However, only 52%-69% of lampreys vulnerable to traps were caught, suggesting that traps can be improved. The approach used in this study was a novel use of Bayesian state-space models that may have broader applications, including evaluation of barriers for other invasive species (e.g., Asian carp (Hypophthalmichthys spp.)) and fish passage structures for other diadromous fishes.