Transient temperature response modeling in IAMs: the effects of over simplification on the SCC

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) couple representations of the natural climate system with models of the global economy to evaluate climate and energy policies. Such models are currently used to derive the benefits of carbon mitigation policies through estimates of the social cost of carbon (SCC)...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published inEconomics. The open-access, open-assessment e-journal Vol. 4
Main Author Marten, Alex L
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published 01.01.2011
Subjects
Climate change
Economic equilibrium
Economic systems
Energy policy
Environmental policy
Probability theory
Online AccessGet full text

Cover

More Information
Summary:Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) couple representations of the natural climate system with models of the global economy to evaluate climate and energy policies. Such models are currently used to derive the benefits of carbon mitigation policies through estimates of the social cost of carbon (SCC). To remain tractable these models often utilize highly simplified representations of complex natural, social, and economic systems. The authors consider three prominent IAMs, DICE, FUND, and PAGE, and compare their highly simplified temperature response models to two upwelling diffusion energy balance models that better reflect the progressive heat uptake of the deep ocean. They find that all three IAMs fail to fully capture important characteristics in the dynamics of temperature response, especially for high equilibrium climate sensitivities. This has serious implications given these models are often run with distributions for the equilibrium climate sensitivity which have a positive probability for su
Bibliography:ObjectType-Article-2
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
content type line 23
ObjectType-Feature-1
ISSN:1864-6042
1864-6042