Global CO2 impacts of light-duty electric vehicles

• Published in: TERI information digest on energy and environment Vol. 19; no. 4; p. 473
• Main Authors: A, Ghandi, S, Paltsev
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New Delhi The Energy and Resources Institute 01.12.2020
• Subjects: Carbon dioxide; Carbon dioxide emissions; Economic analysis; Economic models; Electric vehicles; Emissions; Forecasting; Hybrid electric vehicles; Internal combustion engines; Light duty vehicles; Policy analysis
• ISSN: 0972-6721; 1875-9297

Electric vehicles (EVs) offer a solution for decarbonization of transport. This study evaluates global scenarios of EV deployment and their impacts on total global CO2 emissions. For this assessment, the authors enhance the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model to represent the fleet dynamics of light duty vehicles (LDV), including internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and EVs. For EV fleet, both plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) and battery electric vehicles (BEV) are considered. The authors consider several illustrative scenarios and find that global LDV stock is projected to grow from 1.1 billion vehicles in 2015 to 1.65-1.75 billion in 2050, while global EV stock is growing from about a million in 2015 to about 585-825 million in 2050. At this level of market penetration, EVs would constitute one-third to one-half of the overall LDV fleet by 2050 in different scenarios, leading to the largest EV share. The modeling suggests that EV uptake will vary across regions. China, the United States, and Europe remain the largest markets in this study time frame, but the EV presence is projected to grow in all regions. While the global LDV fleet grows by about 50% by 2050, the corresponding CO2 emissions from LDV are predicted to reduce by about 50% in 2050 relative to 2015. Global carbon intensity of LDVs will reduce by about 70% from 2015 to 2050. (12 Figures, 21 Tables, 59 References)