A NEURAL NETWORK ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE CHINA - CENTRAL ASIA ECONOMIC CORRIDOR

• Published in: Delhi Business Review Vol. 22; no. 1; pp. 27 - 51
• Main Authors: Balan, Eric, Saeed, Mohammad
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Rohini Society for Human Transformation & Research 01.01.2021
• Subjects: Currency; Datasets; Development banks; Economic conditions; Economic indicators; Economic reform; Fixed exchange rates; Fixed rates; Floating exchange rates; Foreign exchange rates; GDP; Gross Domestic Product; Neural networks; China; Central Asia
• ISSN: 0972-222X; 2277-7725

THE present study is an attempt to examine the economic conditions of Central Asia in its interest in becoming a strategic economic partner to China on the economic corridor of China's Belt and Road Initiatives.Design/Methodology/Approach: Using neural network as a tool for pattern recognition, the Central Asia's national accounts were assessed to ascertain its fitness in becoming a worthy partner to China on the Belt and Road Initiatives. The 18-year economic period data that was used was obtained and corroborated from the Asian Development Bank, World Bank, and the respective National Statistical Bureaus.Findings: The results of the assessment showed that these five countries of Central Asia are economically not sound and venturing further into this partnership would and could push an adverse outcome. Albeit with the fundamentals being restored and, in some ways, improved (drastically slow), China has shown interest in the region for the longest time. With the region's economy not being strong and solely based on commodities coupled with a floating rate, the shift in global uncertainness will run the course for Central Asia.Research Limitations: The main limitation for this study was on the data and its representation of the countries. Some components of the data were consolidated and represented as a single indicator. This misled the data interpretation and required corroboration from multiple sources to verify the data.Managerial Implications: The national accounts of each of these countries were assessed with inflation omitted displayed a downward trend in its overall 18-year economy period. For a developing region, the national economy cannot rely only on one or a few economic activities. Strong sectors can become weak should it be neglected or be impacted exogenously, especially energy and commodities, and weaker economic sectors that could potentially become main drivers of the country need due focus as well. However, there were no trace of evidence in the assessment to show a potential economic activity becoming the catalyst of growth for the region and for the respective countries.Originality/Value: This study showcased the use of artificial intelligence in the area of international economics to distinctively characterize and cluster countries according to the realities of their respective economic conditions.