Precipitation Trends Analysis by Mann-Kendall Test: A Case Study of Paraíba, Brazil

This work aimed to select semivariogram models to estimate trends in monthly precipitation in Paraiba State-Brazil using ordinary kriging. The methodology involves the application of geostatistical interpolation of precipitation records of 51 years from 69 rainfall stations across the state. Analysi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inRevista brasileira de meteorologia Vol. 35; no. 2; p. 187
Main Authors Xavier, Sílvio Fernando Alves, Jale, Jader da Silva, Stosic, Tatijana, dos Santos, Carlos Antonio Costa, Singh, Vijay P
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Portuguese
Published Rio de Janeiro Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia 01.04.2020
Subjects
Atmospheric precipitations
Dependence
Interpolation
Mathematical models
Monthly precipitation
Precipitation
Precipitation trends
Rain
Rainfall
Statistical methods
Trends
Brazil
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Summary:This work aimed to select semivariogram models to estimate trends in monthly precipitation in Paraiba State-Brazil using ordinary kriging. The methodology involves the application of geostatistical interpolation of precipitation records of 51 years from 69 rainfall stations across the state. Analysis of semivariograms showed that specific months had a strong spatial dependence (Index of Spatial Dependence - IDE < 25%). The trends were subjected to the following models: circular, spherical, pentaspherical, exponential, Gaussian, rational quadratic, K-Bessel and tetraspherical. The best fit models were selected by cross-validation and Error Comparison Index (ECI). Each data set (month) had a particular spatial dependence structure, which made it necessary to define specific models of semivariogram in order to enhance the adjustment of the experimental semivariogram. Besides, the monthly trend map was plotted to justify the chosen models.
ISSN:0102-7786
1982-4351
DOI:10.1590/0102-778635101