CODA: Taming the Tiger; Report from the Middle Kingdom

• Published in: World policy journal Vol. 14; no. 4; p. 103
• Main Author: Chace, James
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Durham Duke University Press, NC & IL 01.12.1997
• Subjects: International relations; Geography; Asia
• ISSN: 0740-2775; 1936-0924

This policy, which recognizes Taiwan as a part of China while leaving for the future the means by which "the province" will rejoin the mainland, and which allows for the existence of "two systems," is endorsed by Washington as well as Beijing. It is also the declared policy of Taipei, which considers Taiwan as the remnant of the Republic of China; theoretically, China could be unified under either communist or noncommunist auspices. For the time being, the status quo suits Beijing, and it interprets any hint of a movement toward Taiwanese independence as a hostile act. At the same time, it reserves the right to use force to bring about unification. Washington, on the other hand, insists on Taiwan's right to unite with mainland China--should it choose to do so--free of military pressure and to this end provides Taiwan with arms of a defensive character. (It should be noted that Beijing did not view the F-16 fighter-bombers President Bush agreed to sell Taiwan in 1992 as defensive weapons.) In Hong Kong, little has changed on the surface since the Chinese takeover this past June. Beijing claims that Hong Kong will be a model for Taiwan when Taiwan rejoins the mainland. "Business as usual," is the slogan, and both Chinese and Western business interests there confirmed that the administration of Tung Chee-hwa, the shipping magnate selected by Beijing to run Hong Kong and known by the initials "C.H.," is determined to do just that. One simply cannot rule out military conflict between the United States and mainland China if Washington continues to stand by the letter of its 1979 declaration establishing a new relationship with Taiwan following U.S. recognition of the People's Republic of China. "It is the policy of the United States," said the declaration, "to consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means...a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States." Beijing, one Taiwanese official suggested, could defuse cross-strait tensions by offering a "no use of force" pledge in return for a commitment on Washington's part not to support Taiwanese independence. This seems an unlikely scenario, at least in the near term.