Estimated Natural Rate of Interest in an Open Economy: The Case of Israel
The new Keynesian framework as presented in Clarida et al. (2002) suggests that in an open economy, the natural rate of interest consists of a local component (the expected growth of domestic total factor productivity) and a global component (the expected growth of world output). We estimate an augm...
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Published in | IDEAS Working Paper Series from RePEc |
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Main Authors | , |
Format | Paper |
Language | English |
Published |
St. Louis
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
01.01.2018
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Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
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Summary: | The new Keynesian framework as presented in Clarida et al. (2002) suggests that in an open economy, the natural rate of interest consists of a local component (the expected growth of domestic total factor productivity) and a global component (the expected growth of world output). We estimate an augmented Taylor-type rule for Israel and confirm that the above-mentioned components contain valuable information about the monetary interest rate. In particular, a large part of the decline in the monetary interest rate in 2008-2009 is explained by the exceptional decline in world growth. With regard to the other and more traditional components of the rule, we find a high and significant response of the monetary interest rate to the inflation gap, the output gap, and the real exchange rate gap. |
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