A structural time series approach to modelling multiple and resurgent meat scares in Italy

This paper exploits a structural time series approach to model the time pattern of multiple and resurgent food scares and their direct and cross-product impacts on consumer response. A structural time series Almost Ideal Demand System (STS-AIDS) is embedded in a vector error correction framework to...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inApplied economics Vol. 38; no. 14; p. 17
Main Authors Mazzocchi, Mario, Davide Delle Monache, Lobb, Alexandra E
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published London Taylor & Francis Ltd 10.08.2006
Subjects
Demand
Economic models
Error correction & detection
Food safety
Meat
Studies
Time series
Italy
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Summary:This paper exploits a structural time series approach to model the time pattern of multiple and resurgent food scares and their direct and cross-product impacts on consumer response. A structural time series Almost Ideal Demand System (STS-AIDS) is embedded in a vector error correction framework to allow for dynamic effects (VEC-STS-AIDS). Italian aggregate household data on meat demand is used to assess the time-varying impact of a resurgent BSE crisis (1996 and 2000) and the 1999 Dioxin crisis. The VEC-STS-AIDS model monitors the short-run impacts and performs satisfactorily in terms of residuals diagnostics, overcoming the major problems encountered by the customary vector error correction approach. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]
ISSN:0003-6846
1466-4283