A Bayesian approach to comparing theoretic models to observational data: A case study from solar flare physics

Solar flares are large-scale releases of energy in the solar atmosphere, which are characterised by rapid changes in the hydrodynamic properties of plasma from the photosphere to the corona. Solar physicists have typically attempted to understand these complex events using a combination of theoretic...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inarXiv.org
Main Authors Adamakis, S, Raftery, C L, Walsh, R W, Gallagher, P T
Format Paper
LanguageEnglish
Published Ithaca Cornell University Library, arXiv.org 24.06.2012
Subjects
Atmospheric models
Bayesian analysis
Emission analysis
Energy dissipation
Energy measurement
Heating
Ill posed problems
Photosphere
Physicists
Plasma (physics)
Solar atmosphere
Solar flares
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Summary:Solar flares are large-scale releases of energy in the solar atmosphere, which are characterised by rapid changes in the hydrodynamic properties of plasma from the photosphere to the corona. Solar physicists have typically attempted to understand these complex events using a combination of theoretical models and observational data. From a statistical perspective, there are many challenges associated with making accurate and statistically significant comparisons between theory and observations, due primarily to the large number of free parameters associated with physical models. This class of ill-posed statistical problem is ideally suited to Bayesian methods. In this paper, the solar flare studied by Raftery et al. (2009) is reanalysed using a Bayesian framework. This enables us to study the evolution of the flare's temperature, emission measure and energy loss in a statistically self-consistent manner. The Bayesian-based model selection techniques imply that no decision can be made regarding which of the conductive or non-thermal beam heating play the most important role in heating the flare plasma during the impulsive phase of this event.
ISSN:2331-8422