Modeling outcomes of soccer matches

We compare various extensions of the Bradley-Terry model and a hierarchical Poisson log-linear model in terms of their performance in predicting the outcome of soccer matches (win, draw, or loss). The parameters of the Bradley-Terry extensions are estimated by maximizing the log-likelihood, or an ap...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inarXiv.org
Main Authors Tsokos, Alkeos, Narayanan, Santhosh, Kosmidis, Ioannis, Baio, Gianluca, Cucuringu, Mihai, Whitaker, Gavin, Király, Franz J
Format Paper
LanguageEnglish
Published Ithaca Cornell University Library, arXiv.org 03.08.2018
Subjects
Mathematical models
Modelling
Parameter estimation
Performance prediction
Soccer
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Summary:We compare various extensions of the Bradley-Terry model and a hierarchical Poisson log-linear model in terms of their performance in predicting the outcome of soccer matches (win, draw, or loss). The parameters of the Bradley-Terry extensions are estimated by maximizing the log-likelihood, or an appropriately penalized version of it, while the posterior densities of the parameters of the hierarchical Poisson log-linear model are approximated using integrated nested Laplace approximations. The prediction performance of the various modeling approaches is assessed using a novel, context-specific framework for temporal validation that is found to deliver accurate estimates of the test error. The direct modeling of outcomes via the various Bradley-Terry extensions and the modeling of match scores using the hierarchical Poisson log-linear model demonstrate similar behavior in terms of predictive performance.
ISSN:2331-8422