The Coming of Peak Gross Domestic Product?

Could economic growth come to an end in the next fifty years? Think whimper, not bang: A civilization-ending catastrophe isn't what the author has in mind. Instead, the question is whether in the US and other advanced countries growth as you have come to understand it could simply exhaust itsel...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inThe independent review (Oakland, Calif.) Vol. 20; no. 3; p. 357
Main Author Lindsey, Brink
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Oakland Independent Institute 01.12.2015
Subjects
20th century
Baby boomers
Consumption
Economic development
Economic growth
Economists
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
Labor productivity
Leisure
Life expectancy
Per capita
Productivity
Recessions
Stagnation
Summers, Lawrence
Value
Workers
Working hours
United States > US
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Summary:Could economic growth come to an end in the next fifty years? Think whimper, not bang: A civilization-ending catastrophe isn't what the author has in mind. Instead, the question is whether in the US and other advanced countries growth as you have come to understand it could simply exhaust itself. Speculation along these lines has become popular in the years since the Great Recession. When you talk about economic growth, you are typically referring to growth in the value of gross domestic product (GDP) -- or, more precisely, to growth in real GDP per capita. GDP per capita can be broken down into two basic components: labor hours per capita and output per worker-hour. Accordingly, if labor hours per capita start to decline, output per worker-hour must rise just to keep GDP from shrinking. Growth can occur only if the rise in labor productivity (output per worker-hour) outpaces the fall in labor hours.
ISSN:1086-1653
2169-3420