Impact of Population Aging on Japanese International Travel to 2025

In this paper we forecast Japanese international travel to 2025. In addition, to the usual economic variables, our model also captured both populations again and cohort effects on Japanese travel abroad. We predict the number of future Japanese overseas trips for males and females separately by five...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inIDEAS Working Paper Series from RePEc
Main Authors Mak, James, Carlile, Lonny, Dai, Sally
Format Paper
LanguageEnglish
Published St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 01.01.2004
Subjects
Age groups
Aging
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Summary:In this paper we forecast Japanese international travel to 2025. In addition, to the usual economic variables, our model also captured both populations again and cohort effects on Japanese travel abroad. We predict the number of future Japanese overseas trips for males and females separately by five-year age groups and in five-year increments. We conclude that the Japanese will continue to travel abroad in increasing numbers but population aging will dramatically slow overall future Japanese overseas travel. While the number of "senior" travelers is predicted to increase sharply, we foresee fewer overseas trips taken by Japanese, especially among women, in the 20s and early 30s age groups. Finally, we examine the responses of the industry and the public sector in Japan to implications of a rapidly aging population on future international travel.