중남미 지역과 FTA 체결의 효과 분석 및 북미 통상에 미치는 영향 연구: CGE 접근

• Published in: 무역연구, 11(6) pp. 175 - 192
• Main Author: 노재확
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Korean
• Published: 한국무역연구원 01.12.2015
• Subjects: 무역학
• ISSN: 1738-8112; 2384-1958
• DOI: 10.16980/jitc.11.6.201512.175

The Korean government announced plans to enter into FTAs with South American countries such as Mexico, Ecuador, MERCOSUR (Mercado Común del Sur) and SICA (Sistema de la Integración Centro-Americana). CGE simulation results revealed that welfare increases by 0.18% when an FTA is concluded with Mexico and Ecuador, by 0.94% with MERCOSUR and by 0.07% with SICA. And the size of increase in welfare are foreseen to be the order of MERCOSUR, Mexico and Ecuador, and SICA. If Korea makes FTA with the whole latin group countries, mentioned above, simultaneously, 0.7% of welfare are expected to increase. At the same time, results revealed that Korea’s output also, accordingly, increases by 0.2% when an FTA is made with Mexico and Ecuador, by 0.4% with MERCOSUR and by 0.085% with SICA. If Korea makes FTA with the whole above group countries at the same time, 0.72% of output are expected to increase. However, the simulation shows that the welfare effects are slightly negative to the welfare level of our present FTA partners in American countries (Canada, U.S., Chile and Peru). Thus, accordingly, the effects to production are slightly negative as well. KCI Citation Count: 4