Analyzing the Influences of Economic Opportunity and Residential Substitutability on Population Migration by Age Group

• Published in: 국토계획, 60(4) pp. 38 - 59
• Main Authors: 김우식, 김동인, 윤동근
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: 대한국토·도시계획학회 01.08.2025
• Subjects: 공학일반
• ISSN: 1226-7147; 2383-9171

Population imbalance in South Korea is intensifying owing to an increasing concentration in metropolitan areas and a progressive decline of peripheral regions. A nuanced understanding of life cycle dynamics is necessary for an effective policy response to depopulation. Migration is driven by the complex interactions of socioeconomic factors, whose relative influence varies across different stages of the life cycle. This study employs a life cycle approach to analyze the determinants of migration, focusing on regional socioeconomic characteristics and the roles of economic opportunity and residential substitutability. We employ a spatial econometric model that incorporates spatial interactions between economic opportunity and residential substitutability into the spatial weight matrix. Bayesian posterior probability is used to identify the interregional migration determinants. The results show that economic opportunity is the primary driver of migration among young adults (ages 20–29). Furthermore, the findings indicate that simultaneously considering both economic opportunity and residential substitutability across different areas enhances the attractiveness of specific areas for migration, particularly for the stages of family formation (ages 30–39) and child-education (ages 40–49). These findings offer empirical insights for designing sustainable responses to local depopulation and support the implementation of regional balanced development policies. KCI Citation Count: 0