Estimating North Korea's nuclear capabilities: Insights from a study on tritium production in a 5MWe graphite-moderated reactor

• Published in: Nuclear engineering and technology Vol. 56; no. 7; pp. 2666 - 2675
• Main Authors: Sungmin Yang, Manseok Lee, Danwoo Ko, Gyunyoung Heo, Changwoo Kang, Seung Min Woo
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Korean
• Published: 2024
• Subjects: MCNP6; Graphite-moderated Reactor; Nonproliferation; Tritium Production Burnable Absorber Rod; Safeguards; Tritium
• ISSN: 1738-5733; 2234-358X

This study explores the potential for tritium production in North Korea's 5MWe graphite-moderated reactor, a facility primarily associated with nuclear weapons material production. While existing research on these reactors has largely centered on plutonium, our focus shifts to tritium, a crucial element in boosted fission bombs. Utilizing the MCNP6 code for simulations, the results estimate that North Korea can possibly produce approximately 7-12 g of tritium annually. This translates to the potential production of 1-3 boosted fission bombs each year. By incorporating tritium production into assessments of North Korea's nuclear capabilities, our methodology provides insights into the dynamics of the country's nuclear force, revealing a more diversified and complex composition than previously assumed. The findings significantly aid policymakers, regulatory bodies, and researchers in comprehending potential proliferation risks associated with graphite-moderated reactors and in developing strategies to address the nuclear threat emanating from North Korea.