중국정부의 부동산정책 효과분석 -주택구매제한령(限購令)을 중심으로

• Published in: 중국연구 Vol. 61; pp. 213 - 236
• Main Authors: 이기영, Kir Young Lee, 현춘희, Chun Ji Xuan
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Korean
• Published: 한국외국어대학교 중국연구소 30.07.2014
• Subjects: Chinese real estate; treatment effect; xiangouling
• ISSN: 1225-8695

Since the year ;00 when price of residences surged, Chinese government has utilized economic measures such as money supply, mortgage rates, tax revenue, and finance etc., to stabilize price of residences. However, in the yet-incomplete economic system of Chinese real estate market, the adjustments by means of these economic measures haven``t seen clear policy effects, price of residences having rapidly risen to become a major economic, social, and political issue. To tackle this issue, the government got to implement, in ;00 by means of a strong administrative measure, a policy that directly controls residences to be purchased, and number of residences to be purchased, etc., which policy is called “Xiangouling” that is the strictest, and strongest policy ever among all real estate related policies implemented by the government, and it is estimated that the policy did huge effect on residence market contraction from the second half ;0``0 to ;0````. This thesis has analyzed policy effects of Xiangouling. The subject of analysis is Beijing, where Xiangouling has been implemented in the strictest way, and the Bandwidth to curb effects of other factors that might influence price of residences, was determined to be 0 weeks before and after implementation of Xiangouling. Variables used for analysis model are four ; Xiangouling policy variables, initial deposit rates, trend before the policy, and trend after the policy. A result of regression analysis shows that the calculated policy variable``s coefficient has negatively influenced residential price in a statistically meaningful way. More concretely, it is shown that Xiangouling has decreased the residential price in Beijing by ;00~;0 Yuan, i.e, about ``;.%~``.%. It is especially confirmed that implementation of Xiangouling tackled the rising trend that had clearly impacted on the rise of residential price before the policy, demolishing or making statistically meaningless the rising trend within the sample``s boundary.