Cellular Automata: Simulating Alpine Tundra Vegetation Dynamics in Response to Global Warming

This study attempts to model alpine tundra vegetation dynamics in a tundra region in the Qinghai Province of China in response to global warming. We used Raster-based cellular automata and a Geographic Information System to study the spatial and temporal vegetation dynamics. The cellular automata mo...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inArctic, antarctic, and alpine research Vol. 40; no. 1; pp. 256 - 263
Main Authors Zhang, Yanqing A., Peterman, Michael R., Aun, Dorin L., Zhang, Yanming
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research 01.02.2008
Subjects
Cellular automata
Climate change
Ecosystem models
Marine ecosystems
Modeling
Simulations
Spatial models
Surface temperature
Temperature distribution
Vegetation
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Summary:This study attempts to model alpine tundra vegetation dynamics in a tundra region in the Qinghai Province of China in response to global warming. We used Raster-based cellular automata and a Geographic Information System to study the spatial and temporal vegetation dynamics. The cellular automata model is implemented with IDRISI's Multi-Criteria Evaluation functionality to simulate the spatial patterns of vegetation change assuming certain scenarios of global mean temperature increase over time. The Vegetation Dynamic Simulation Model calculates a probability surface for each vegetation type, and then combines all vegetation types into a composite map, determined by the maximum likelihood that each vegetation type should distribute to each raster unit. With scenarios of global temperature increase of 1 to 3°C, the vegetation types such as Dry Kobresia Meadow and Dry Potentilla Shrub that are adapted to warm and dry conditions tend to become more dominant in the study area.
ISSN:1523-0430
1938-4246
DOI:10.1657/1523-0430(06-048)\[ZHANG\]2.0.CO;2