Delphi expert panels in the scenariobased strategic planning of agriculture

• Published in: Foresight (Cambridge) Vol. 8; no. 1; pp. 66 - 81
• Main Authors: Rikkonen, Pasi, Kaivooja, Jari, Aakkula, Jyrki
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Emerald Group Publishing Limited 01.01.2006
• Subjects: Agriculture; Delphi method; Finland; Forecasting; Generation and dissemination of information; Strategic planning
• ISSN: 1463-6689; 1465-9832
• DOI: 10.1108/14636680610647156

Purpose This article seeks to present approaches on the utilisation of expert information in strategic planning practices. Designmethodologyapproach The article emphasises alternative scenario development for the bases of decision making. This is done through an evaluation of Delphi studies and their feasibility for scenario construction. As an application of the information processes, both narrow and broad expert information processes are presented as alternative sources for solutions in public sector strategic planning. Findings Basically, there are two alternative ways to utilise Delphi studies in strategic planning and decision making a broad expert information process BEIP model and a narrow expert information process NEIP model. Practical implications As a broad process, an example is presented of the alternative future outcomes and the argumentation around it in the share of genetically modified plant varieties in commercial farming in Finland. Originalityvalue This theoretical review contributes to the discussions of the linkages between the use of expert information, the scenario planning and the strategic planning processes.