Research on Prognostic Cost Model for Electric Drive Systems Integrating Material Pricing and Technological Evolution

• Published in: 2024 IEEE 4th New Energy and Energy Storage System Control Summit Forum (NEESSC) pp. 249 - 254
• Main Authors: Jia, Guorui, Chen, Chuan, Li, Wanyang, Liu, Chen, Meng, Qingsi, Ren, Huanhuan
• Format: Conference Proceeding
• Language: English
• Published: IEEE 29.08.2024
• Subjects: Analytical models; cost forecast; Costs; electric drive system; Energy storage; High-voltage techniques; Predictive models; price model; Pricing; Principal component analysis; Raw materials; Silicon carbide
• DOI: 10.1109/NEESSC62857.2024.10733451

In order to analyze the change trend of the cost and price of the electric drive system, a cost prediction model of the electric drive system based on the raw material price and technology upgrading factors is constructed. Through simulation, the cost of the electric drive system in 2025 and 2030 is calculated. The results show that with the continuous upgrading of technology and the continuous improvement of industrial chain, the cost of miniaturized electric drive system in 2025 will be reduced by about 20% compared with that in 2022, and by 2030, the cost of miniaturized electric drive system and high-voltage electric drive system will be reduced by more than 25% compared with that in 2022. Industrial scale, rare earth price, chip price, bulk commodities, silicon carbide and technology upgrading are the main factors affecting the cost of electric drive system.