The Impact of Climate Change-Induced Wind Speed Decline on Wind Farm Output

• Published in: 2024 IEEE 2nd International Conference on Power Science and Technology (ICPST) pp. 1453 - 1458
• Main Authors: Qi, Huanxing, Meng, Wenchuan, Qin, Yinming, Zhuo, Yixin, Hu, Jiaqiu, Rao, Zhi, Wang, Binglin
• Format: Conference Proceeding
• Language: English
• Published: IEEE 09.05.2024
• Subjects: adequacy; capacity factor; Climate change; Power supplies; Statistical distributions; Wind energy; Wind farms; Wind power generation; Wind speed
• DOI: 10.1109/ICPST61417.2024.10602381

The primary energy source for wind farms comes from wind energy, which is directly affected by climatic conditions, making them sensitive to changes in climate patterns over long timescales. Climate change can significantly alter the statistical distribution characteristics of wind speeds, affecting the output of wind power and, consequently, the adequacy of power supply in the grid. The ERA5 meteorological data from 1980 to 2019 for six different climatic regions in China were collected and organized. By combining this data with typical wind turbine power models, the wind power output for each region was obtained. Using linear regression trend analysis, the impact of climate change on average wind speed, wind speed skewness, divergence, and the capacity factor of typical units was examined over a long timescale. Simulation calculations show that the decrease in wind speed over a long timescale has a clear regional distribution characteristic. Despite the general downward trend in average wind speed across China, there are still some regions where wind speed is on the rise. Wind farms in areas with high wind speeds are less affected by decreases in wind speed, while those in medium and low wind speed areas are more sensitive to long-term changes in wind speed.