Conflict, Growth and Human Development An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan

This paper uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound Testing cointegration approach to study Pakistan's long-term relationship between internal conflict, economic growth, and human development. We show that, by offering better opportunities and reducing radicalization, education coul...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inJournal of policy modeling
Main Authors Véganzonès-Varoudakis, Marie-Ange, Rizvi, Syed Muhammad All-E-Raza
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Elsevier 09.01.2020
Subjects
Economics and Finance
Humanities and Social Sciences
Human Development
Pakistan
Conflict
Economic Growth
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Summary:This paper uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound Testing cointegration approach to study Pakistan's long-term relationship between internal conflict, economic growth, and human development. We show that, by offering better opportunities and reducing radicalization, education could help reduce conflict in Pakistan. However, the government's spending on its defense budget is high and results in low social spending. We also show a positive contribution to conflict reduction by public order, which justifies the anti-terrorist policy. It also seems that economic reforms and wealth do not help to reduce internal conflicts in Pakistan. This result could illustrate a situation where globalization is perceived as a threat, and economic growth finance political and social unrest. Political rights and civil liberties do not seem to reduce conflict either; periods of democracy have experienced a resurgence of violence. Pakistan could be caught in a development trap with conflict being a key variable to consider before seeing the benefits of reforming the country.
ISSN:0161-8938