Risk Assessment of ISpodoptera exempta/I against Food Security: Estimating the Potential Global Overlapping Areas of Wheat, Maize, and Rice under Climate Change

• Published in: Insects (Basel, Switzerland) Vol. 15; no. 5
• Main Authors: Li, Ming, Jin, Zhenan, Qi, Yuhan, Zhao, Haoxiang, Yang, Nianwan, Guo, Jianyang, Chen, Baoxiong, Xian, Xiaoqing, Liu, Wanxue
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 01.05.2024
• Subjects: Agricultural pests; Climatic changes; Risk assessment; Safety and security measures; Wheat; South America; China; Tanzania; Brazil; Mexico; Australia; North America; India; South Asia
• ISSN: 2075-4450; 2075-4450
• DOI: 10.3390/insects15050348

Spodoptera exempta is a global agricultural invasive pest which posing a serious threat to the planting area of major crops of maize, wheat and rice. Our study predicted the potential suitable areas for S. exempta globally based on 841 global occurrence records and eight important bioclimatic variables, and analyzed the overlap with maize, wheat and rice planting areas. The results of the study indicate that the high potential suitable areas of S. exempta are mainly distributed in developing countries (Latin America, central South America, Central Africa, and southern Asia), with the greatest impact on global maize planting areas, followed by rice and wheat. Global warming will have a smaller limitation on the distribution of S. exempta. In view of the global potential geographic distribution of S. exempta and its damage to three major crops, the above governments of various countries should pay active attention to the prevention and control of S. exempta to protect global food security. Spodoptera exempta, known as the black armyworm, has been extensively documented as an invasive agricultural pest prevalent across various crop planting regions globally. However, the potential geographical distribution and the threat it poses to host crops of remains unknown at present. Therefore, we used an optimized MaxEnt model based on 841 occurrence records and 19 bioclimatic variables to predict the potential suitable areas of S. exempta under current and future climatic conditions, and the overlap with wheat, rice, and maize planting areas was assessed. The optimized model was highly reliable in predicting potential suitable areas for this pest. The results showed that high-risk distribution areas for S. exempta were mainly in developing countries, including Latin America, central South America, central Africa, and southern Asia. Moreover, for the three major global food crops, S. exempta posed the greatest risk to maize planting areas (510.78 × 10[sup.4] km[sup.2]), followed by rice and wheat planting areas. Under future climate scenarios, global warming will limit the distribution of S. exempta. Overall, S. exempta had the strongest effect on global maize production areas and the least on global wheat planting areas. Our study offers a scientific basis for global prevention of S. exempta and protection of agricultural crops.