Stochastic time series modeling for prediction of rainfall and runoff in lidder catchment of South Kashmir

• Published in: Journal of Soil and Water Conservation (India) Vol. 8; no. 4
• Main Authors: Sherring, Arpan, Amin, hafizishtiyaq, Mishra, A.K, Mohd A Alam
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: 01.10.2009
• Subjects: ESCORRENTIA; http://www.fao.org/aos/agrovoc#c_35388; http://www.fao.org/aos/agrovoc#c_6435; LLUVIA; PLUIE; RAIN; RUISSELLEMENT; RUNOFF
• ISSN: 0022-457X

A study was conducted to develop a stochastic time series model for prediction of annual rainfall and runoff for Lidder catchment of Lidder river. The study area is one of the macro watershed of lidder river and has an area of 1,243 km2. The developed model is based on 15 years(1993-2007) annual rainfall and runoff data collected by Indian Metrological Department, Srinagar, and Civil Investigation and Design Division, Anantnag, Jammu and Kashmir, India .. Autoregressive(AR) model of order 0,1 and 2 proposed by Kottegoda and Horder (1980) were tried. The goodness of fit and adequacy of model was tested by Box-Pierce Portmonteau test, Akai information criterion (AIC) and various statistical characteristics, viz. Mean Forecast Error (MFE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Relative Error (MRE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Integral Square Error (ISE). Based on the results, it was concluded that AR(I) model can be effectively used for prediction of rainfall and runoff for Lidder catchment of Lidder river in south Kashmir