Occurrence rule and forecast method of cotton aphid in Poyang lake area in Jiujiang City

• Published in: Hunan agricultural science & technology newsletter : HASTN Vol. 13; no. 12
• Main Authors: Wu Hao, Jiujiang Meteorological Bureau, Jiujiang (China), Xu Meizhen, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang (China), Liu Dingzhong, Pengze Plant Protection and Quarantine Station, Pengze (China)
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Chinese
• Published: 01.12.2012
• Subjects: ALGODON; COTON; COTTON; FORECASTING; http://www.fao.org/aos/agrovoc#c_1926; http://www.fao.org/aos/agrovoc#c_3041; http://www.fao.org/aos/agrovoc#c_5741; ORGANISME NUISIBLE; PESTS; PLAGAS; TECHNIQUE DE PREVISION; TECNICAS DE PREDICCION
• ISSN: 1009-4229

［目的］探讨九江鄱阳湖区棉蚜发生规律与预报方法，以丰富该地区棉蚜预报技术。［方法］采用对比分析、相关分析和小波分析方法分析了江西省彭泽县近28年来棉蚜的发生规律性及影响因子，通过逐步回归方法建立了棉蚜发生等级长期预报模式与中短期气象条件适宜度预报模式，并在鄱阳湖北部棉区开展了预报试验。［结果］小波分析表明：近28年来，鄱阳湖北部棉花伏蚜发生等级存在4年主振荡周期，而棉花苗蚜发生等级周期性振荡不明显。对比分析与相关分析表明：棉花蚜虫的发生为害与冬季气候背景及中短期气象条件存在显著相关性。预报试验表明：利用单站要素研制的棉花蚜虫发生等级长期预报模式与中短期气象条件适宜度预报模式在气候相似区推广应用的信度是可靠的。［结论］为有效开展棉区棉蚜防治工作提供了理论依据。 [Objective] The aim was to explore occurrence rules and forecast methods of cotton aphid in Poyang Lake Area in Jiujiang City to enrich prediction methods of cotton aphid in the area. [Method] The occurrence rules and influencing factors of cotton aphid in Pengze County in 28 years were analyzed with comparative analysis, correlation analysis and wavelet analysis. Furthermore, a long-term forecast model of occurrence grade of cotton aphid and a short-term forecast model of weather condition suitability were established based on stepwise regression. In addition, a forecast test was conducted in cotton area in the north of Poyang Lake. [Result] The wavelet analysis showed that in rec