A Computer Model for Demographic Projections in Educational Planning

The impact of decreasing enrollments is being felt by many postsecondary institutions. Some institutions have been forced to close as a result of their failure to recognize the problem and their consequent entrapment in a vicious spiral: decreasing enrollments bring about reduced revenues; declining...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors Tatham, Elaine L, Finch, Harold L
Format Paper
LanguageEnglish
Published 01.11.1974
Subjects
Community Planning
Computer Oriented Programs
Demographic Planning Model
Educational Finance
Enrollment Projections
Enrollment Trends
Johnson County Community College KS
Kansas
Longitudinal Studies
Population Distribution
Population Trends
Postsecondary Education
School Demography
Two Year Colleges
Kansas
Online AccessGet full text

Cover

More Information
Summary:The impact of decreasing enrollments is being felt by many postsecondary institutions. Some institutions have been forced to close as a result of their failure to recognize the problem and their consequent entrapment in a vicious spiral: decreasing enrollments bring about reduced revenues; declining income results in personnel and program cutbacks; economy measures cause the institution to be less attractive to students, which in turn results in additional enrollment reductions. Effective methods of enrollment analysis and planning must be developed if an institution is to avoid entrapment in the downward spiral. A case study of Johnson County Community College's computerized planning model describes a method of projecting realistic future enrollments. Output from the demographic model consists of population projections of males and females by age group for each geographic area in the county; a county forecast for all areas may have as many as 200,000 individual projections. The demographic planning model is described in detail, and alternative uses in community planning are noted. Selected applications of the system are suggested in the text. A hypothetical county is created, and a complete demographic analysis of future population and enrollment trends is provided as a means of demonstrating the system. (AH)