Prediction of travel time and determination of prediction interval

• Main Authors: Sahasrabudhe, Sagar, Danko, Gregory, O'Neil, Ryan J, Mooney, Carolyn
• Format: Patent
• Language: English
• Published: 26.12.2023
• Subjects: CALCULATING; COMPUTER SYSTEMS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS; COMPUTING; COUNTING; DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES; ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING; GYROSCOPIC INSTRUMENTS; MEASURING; MEASURING DISTANCES, LEVELS OR BEARINGS; NAVIGATION; PHOTOGRAMMETRY OR VIDEOGRAMMETRY; PHYSICS; SURVEYING; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR; TESTING

A computer-implemented method comprises receiving training data corresponding to a plurality of trips, the training data including at least a value for a set of attributes for each of the plurality of trips, the set of attributes including an indication of when in a week a trip is taken or in which of a plurality of meal-based time zones in a day the trip is taken, the training data including an actual travel time for each of the plurality of trips. The method further comprises creating and storing, in computer memory, a digital model that is configured to predict a travel time for a future trip based on the training data, the digital model including a set of parameters corresponding to the set of attributes, the digital model including a plurality of sets of values for the set of parameters. In addition, the method comprises receiving specific data for a specific trip, the specific data including an indication when in a week the specific trip will be taken or in which of a plurality of meal-based time zones of a day the specific trip will be taken; calculating a specific travel time for the specific trip using the digital model; determining a specific prediction interval for the specific travel time based on the plurality of sets of values for the set of parameters; and causing display of the specific travel time and the specific prediction interval.