エネルギー予測システム、エネルギー予測システムの動作方法、これを実行させるためのコンピュータプログラム及びこのプログラムを記録したコンピュータ読み取り可能な記録媒体並びに運転支援システム

• Format: Patent
• Language: Japanese
• Published: 27.04.2017
• Subjects: CALCULATING; CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTINGELECTRIC POWER; COMPUTING; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER; COUNTING; DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES; ELECTRICITY; GENERATION; PHYSICS; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR

当日の実測値に即した精度の高い予測値を算出することの可能なエネルギー予測システム、エネルギー予測方法、これを実行させるためのコンピュータプログラム及びこのプログラムを記録した記録媒体並びに運転支援システムを提供すること。クラスター分析を行う比較時間及び比較日数を設定すると共に比較対象を分類された負荷パターンから選択する分析条件設定部４０と、当日時系列データと過去時系列データとを選択された負荷パターンに分類された実測値により設定する時系列データ設定部５０と、類似度が高い過去時系列データを複数選定し、選定した過去時系列データの所定時刻から所定の予測時間先の時刻における実測値を類似度に応じて重み付け加算して予測当日の所定時刻から予測時間先の予測時刻におけるエネルギー負荷の予測値を算出する予測値算出部６０とを備える。 The purpose of the present invention is to provide an energy predict system, energy predict method, computer program for causing execution thereof, recording medium whereupon said program is recorded, and operating assistance system, which are capable of computing high-precision prediction values in line with actual measured values on a given day. Provided is an energy predict system, comprising: an analysis condition setting unit 40 which sets a comparison time period and a number of comparison days whereupon a clustering analysis is carried out, and selects a comparison subject from load patterns which have been classified into categories; a time series data setting unit 50 which sets time series data of a given day and past time series data by actual measured values which have been classified into the selected load pattern; and a prediction value computation unit 60 which selects a plurality of instances of the past time series data which has a high degree of similarity, performs weighted summation according to the degree of similarity on the actual measured values from a prescribed time of the selected past time series data to a time which is a prescribed predicted amount of time in advance of the prescribed time, and computes a prediction value of an energy load from the prescribed time to a prediction time which is the predicted amount of time in advance on the given day.