ELECTRIC POWER DEMAND FORECASTING DEVICE AND ELECTRIC POWER DEMAND FORECASTING METHOD

• Main Author: HIROSE SATOSHI
• Format: Patent
• Language: English; Japanese
• Published: 01.04.2021
• Subjects: CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTINGELECTRIC POWER; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER; ELECTRICITY; GENERATION; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY

To predict the electricity demand of consumers by simple processing using data on the electricity consumption of past consumers.SOLUTION: An electric energy demand forecasting device 1 includes a model parameter determination unit 17 that determines model parameters of a mathematical model that predicts electric energy demand on the basis of past electric energy consumption information and weather information of consumers, and a power demand calculation unit 21 that applies weather forecast information to a mathematical model to calculate power demand, and the power demand includes a first term based on the past power consumption obtained by excluding a portion that depends on the weather, a second term based on the amount of electricity used depending on the past weather, and a third term of an error term.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1 【課題】過去の需要家の使用電力量に関するデータを用いて簡易な処理により需要家の電力需要量を予測する。【解決手段】電力需要量予測装置１は、需要家の過去の使用電力量の情報及び気象情報に基づき、電力需要量を予測する数理モデルのモデルパラメータを決定するモデルパラメータ決定部１７と、数理モデルに気象の予測情報を適用して、電力需要量を算出する電力需要量算出部２１とを備え、数理モデルにおいて、電力需要量は、過去の使用電力量から気象に依存する分が排除されたものに基づく第１の項、過去の気象に依存する使用電力量に基づく第２の項、及び誤差項の第３の項を含む。【選択図】図１