INTEGRATED DEMAND PREDICTION DEVICE, INTEGRATED DEMAND PREDICTION METHOD, AND INTEGRATED DEMAND PREDICTION PROGRAM

• Main Authors: OKADA TAKASHI, NAKAGAWA KEIICHIRO, YANO JUNKO
• Format: Patent
• Language: English
• Published: 04.07.2013
• Subjects: CALCULATING; COMPUTING; COUNTING; DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES; PHYSICS; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide an integrated demand prediction device capable of highly accurately predicting a demand for a plurality of different prediction periods, and to provide an integrated demand prediction method and an integrated demand prediction program.SOLUTION: The integrated demand prediction device construct a plurality of demand prediction models on the basis of a demand result quantity stored in demand result quantity storage means for storing past demand result quantities; calculates a prediction demand quantity for every constructed demand prediction model; calculates a prediction error for each of the plurality of demand prediction models in a common period, on the basis of the calculated prediction demand quantity and the demand result quantities stored in the demand result quantity storage means; calculates, for every prediction period, a blend ratio for each of the plurality of demand prediction models for making the calculated prediction error with respect to the prediction error within a predetermined prediction error range; and calculates the blend ratio for every calculated demand prediction model and the prediction demand quantity for every calculated demand prediction model so as to calculate the prediction demand quantity in the predetermined prediction period.