Productivity prediction method and device based on MCMC algorithm

• Main Authors: LI YAOHUA, XU YINBO, YUAN YUAN, BI CAIQIN, TONG LIHUA, LI QUAN, TANG YUE
• Format: Patent
• Language: Chinese; English
• Published: 22.03.2024
• Subjects: CALCULATING; COMPUTING; COUNTING; DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES; ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING; PHYSICS; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR

The invention provides a productivity prediction method and device based on an MCMC algorithm, and the method comprises the steps: determining a target productivity decline model used for evaluating different types of oil and gas reservoirs according to the productivity decline data characteristics of the different types of oil and gas reservoirs, the different types of oil and gas reservoirs comprise an unconventional oil and gas reservoir, a water-containing reservoir and a complex reservoir, the target productivity decline model comprises a hyperbolic decline model or a nonlinear expansion model suitable for an unconventional oil and gas reservoir, a power law decline model suitable for a water-containing reservoir, and an expansion index decline model or a variable decline rate correction model suitable for a complex reservoir; and constructing a target productivity decline simulation curve of different distribution trends corresponding to the target productivity decline model by using an MCMC algorithm,