Agricultural monthly electricity consumption prediction method considering seasonal adjustment

• Main Authors: NIU CHENGDONG, XU WENCHENG, HU HAO, JIANG YINGHUI, WANG SHAOLIN, FAN XIUYUN, ZHOU XINNAN, HU RUI, TIAN JIAN, WANG HONG, HOU XINYI, LIU DUNNAN, ZHANG YING, LI WEIYI, YANG CAIYUE, HAN SHUOCHEN, CHEN FEI, CAO ZHENG, WANG XI, HE JIAMEI
• Format: Patent
• Language: Chinese; English
• Published: 22.03.2024
• Subjects: CALCULATING; COMPUTING; COUNTING; DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES; PHYSICS; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR

The invention relates to an agricultural monthly electricity consumption prediction method considering seasonal adjustment. The method comprises the following steps: step 1, forming an agricultural monthly electricity consumption time sequence Y; 2, selecting an X12 logarithmic addition model to decompose the agricultural monthly electricity consumption time sequence Y into three independent elements of a trend cycle element TC, a seasonal element S and an irregular element I; step 3, obtaining a predicted value of a trend cycle element TC; 4, obtaining a predicted value of the seasonal element S; 5, obtaining a predicted value of the irregular element I; and step 6, based on the predicted values of the trend cycle element TC, the seasonal element S and the irregular element I obtained in the steps 3-5, restoring the predicted electric quantity by using an X12 logarithmic addition model to obtain the predicted value of the agricultural monthly electricity consumption in the future year. The agricultural futur