Photovoltaic generating capacity prediction method and device

• Main Authors: WANG LEI, SUN KE, LI FAN, GU JITING, SUN YIKAI, YIN YONGLIANG, DAI PAN, YANG LI, HUANG JINGJING, ZHANG MANYING, YANG HONGJI, LIU ZHAOYU, WANG XIRAN, WU QIAOFENG, SHEN ZHIHENG
• Format: Patent
• Language: Chinese; English
• Published: 27.10.2023
• Subjects: CALCULATING; CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTINGELECTRIC POWER; COMPUTER SYSTEMS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS; COMPUTING; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER; COUNTING; DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES; ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING; ELECTRICITY; GENERATION; PHYSICS; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR

The invention discloses a photovoltaic power generation capacity prediction method, and the method comprises the steps: inputting environment parameters into a trained Light GBM weather state prediction model, processing the environment parameters through the Light GBM weather state prediction model, and obtaining a weather state corresponding to a prediction time period; inputting the weather state corresponding to the prediction time period and the photovoltaic generating capacity sequence at the preset time interval into the trained Transform photovoltaic generating capacity prediction model; and processing the weather state corresponding to the prediction time period and the photovoltaic generating capacity sequence of the preset time interval through the Transform photovoltaic generating capacity prediction model by adopting a sliding window cross validation method to obtain the predicted photovoltaic generating capacity of the prediction time period. According to the invention, the weather state can be