Device residual life prediction method based on Wiener process

• Main Authors: LI SHENWAN, LUO ZHI, LI YONG, XING GAILAN, WANG ZHIYU, GU HAOYAN
• Format: Patent
• Language: Chinese; English
• Published: 15.08.2023
• Subjects: CALCULATING; COMPUTER SYSTEMS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS; COMPUTING; COUNTING; ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING; PHYSICS

The invention relates to an equipment residual life prediction method based on a Wiener process, and the method comprises the following steps: building a degradation model based on an age and state related Wiener process model; estimating parameters in the degradation model by using maximum likelihood estimation in combination with an improved artificial bee colony algorithm; using a strong tracking filter to update random parameters in the degradation model; and calculating a probability density function of the residual life of the equipment through a degradation process simulation method. Compared with the prior art, the method can be applied to the condition that the degradation model contains the time-varying diffusion term and the failure threshold is random, has wider applicability, and is accurate in prediction result. 本发明涉及一种基于维纳过程的设备剩余寿命预测方法，包括以下步骤：基于年龄和状态相关维纳过程模型，构建退化模型；利用极大似然估计结合改进人工蜂群算法，估计退化模型中的参数；利用强跟踪滤波器更新退化模型中的随机参数；通过退化过程模拟方法计算设备剩余寿命的概率密度函数。与现有技术相比，本发明可以应用于退化模型含时变扩散项和失效阈值随机的情况，具有更广泛的适用性，且预测结果准确