Photovoltaic cluster output prediction method based on improved statistical upscaling

• Main Authors: PAN GUOBING, XIE ZHIDUO, SONG SENTAO, LIAO SHAOCHENG, CHEN QINGTAI, OUYANG JING, WANG FENG, LI BO
• Format: Patent
• Language: Chinese; English
• Published: 22.11.2022
• Subjects: CALCULATING; CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTINGELECTRIC POWER; COMPUTER SYSTEMS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS; COMPUTING; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER; COUNTING; DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES; ELECTRICITY; GENERATION; HANDLING RECORD CARRIERS; PHYSICS; PRESENTATION OF DATA; RECOGNITION OF DATA; RECORD CARRIERS; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR

The invention discloses a photovoltaic cluster output prediction method based on improved statistical upscaling, and relates to the field of power grid operation and maintenance. Current photovoltaic cluster output prediction precision is not high. The method comprises the steps of photovoltaic power station correlation measurement and feature space construction; carrying out EOF-DBSCAN clustering to divide output clusters; selecting a reference power station and constructing a weight time sequence, selecting the reference power station according to the Pearson's correlation coefficient between the output of each power station and the total output of the cluster, calculating the proportion of the output of the reference power station at each time node in the total output of the cluster, and constructing the weight time sequence; and reference power station output prediction and cluster output prediction. According to the technical scheme, photovoltaic power station data are considered, and the consistency of