Dual correction method and system for precipitation classification error and quantitative error in short-time forecast

• Main Authors: XUE PENGYU, WANG YINTANG, SUN QIAN, LI WENTAO, TANG GUOQIANG, LI LIPING, WANG LEIZHI, YUN ZHAODE, LI LINGJIE, LI XIAOTIAN, NIU KAIJIE, CUI TINGTING, LIU YONG, HU QINGFANG
• Format: Patent
• Language: Chinese; English
• Published: 27.09.2022
• Subjects: CALCULATING; COMPUTING; COUNTING; DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES; ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING; PHYSICS; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR

The invention provides a short-time forecast rainfall classification error and quantitative error double correction method and system, and the method comprises the following steps: obtaining observation and forecast grid rainfall information of the same period in history, and carrying out the temporal-spatial resolution registration and time period matching; for a certain grid, a quantile mapping model is adopted to construct a transfer function between observation and forecast rainfall in the same time period, and initially corrected forecast rainfall is obtained; performing normal transformation on observation and initial correction forecast rainfall, and fitting marginal probability distribution of two kinds of rainfall information in a transformation space; adopting a maximum likelihood method considering censored data to construct joint probability distribution of observation-forecast rainfall and rainfall condition probability distribution, and deducing and recorrecting a forecast rainfall result and a