Distribution line fault probability evaluation method based on weather information

• Main Authors: CHEN MING, WANG PENG, WANG ZIXIN, XU MINGMING, NIU RONGZE, LI FENGJUN, XU HENGBO, SUN QIAN, PENG LEI, GUO JIANLI, YAO FUXING, MIAO SHIHONG, DONG XUAN, LI ZONGFENG, XIE RUIRUI, WU YU, FENG GUANG, ZHANG JIANBIN
• Format: Patent
• Language: Chinese; English
• Published: 25.03.2022
• Subjects: CALCULATING; COMPUTING; COUNTING; DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES; PHYSICS; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR

The invention discloses a distribution line fault probability evaluation method based on weather information, and the method comprises the steps: building a multi-factor distribution line aging fault probability model based on the aging influence factors of a distribution line; calculating a lead induced overvoltage peak value based on a simplified Rusck formula, considering the withstand voltage level of an insulator, calculating the probability of occurrence of lightning peak current when lightning stroke occurs, and determining the lightning stroke influence level; and finally, constructing a distribution line overvoltage fault probability model caused by lightning stroke through a Poisson regression model. Considering weather factors and environment temperature, establishing influence levels of different wind speeds and rainfall levels on the air gap discharge fault of the lead, and constructing a probability model of the air gap discharge fault of the distribution line caused by wind and rain according t