Day-by-day threshold construction and application method for carrying out short temporary rainfall forecast based on GNSS water vapor

• Main Authors: CHEN YUFEI, LIU DINGYI, LI HAOBO, XIN SHIJI, ZHANG JINGLEI, WANG XIAOMING, QIU CONG, ZHANG KEFEI
• Format: Patent
• Language: Chinese; English
• Published: 28.01.2022
• Subjects: CALCULATING; COMPUTING; COUNTING; DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES; ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING; PHYSICS; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR

The invention discloses a day-by-day threshold construction and application method for carrying out local short and temporary rainfall forecast based on GNSS water vapor. The universality obtained in analysis of long-time-sequence historical data, the convenience embodied in a threshold prediction model, the high precision embodied by GNSS atmospheric water vapor observation and the high timeliness brought by use of a day-by-day threshold are comprehensively considered. The method comprises the following steps: analyzing a correlation between a rainfall event and a GNSS atmospheric water vapor observation value, and determining rainfall forecast factors according to different region and climate conditions; determining a threshold candidate value range according to the rainfall forecast factor and a corresponding rainfall observation value; calculating a day-by-day rainfall threshold value of the time period by using a 31-day sliding window and combining with a meteorological critical success index as evaluati