Urban village distribution transformer short-term power load prediction method and system

• Main Authors: YUE SHOUZHI, XIANG LI, HONG HAISHENG, LIU ZHE, XIONG JUN, WANG WEICHAO, LIU QI, DUAN LIAN, CHEN JING
• Format: Patent
• Language: Chinese; English
• Published: 14.01.2022
• Subjects: CALCULATING; COMPUTING; COUNTING; DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES; ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING; PHYSICS; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR

The invention discloses an urban village distribution transformer short-term power load prediction method and system, and the method comprises the steps: forming a Prophet-LSTM combined short-term power load prediction model through an LSTM model and a Prophet model, inputting the obtained temperature data, load data and corresponding holiday and festival data of a target urban village distribution transformer area into the short-term power load prediction model, multiplying a predicted load value output by the LSTM model by a first weight, multiplying a predicted load value output by the Prophet model by a second weight, and then superposing the two to obtain a final predicted load value as output of the short-term power load prediction model. According to the load prediction method provided by the invention, the accuracy of load prediction is more than 70% and can reach 92.86% at most, and the accuracy and the reliability of power load prediction of the urban village transformer area are improved. 本发明公开了一种城