Dengue propagation risk prediction method and affected population size determination method

• Main Authors: OU SHAOMIN, WU HAISHENG, ZENG QINGHUI, GUO PI, ZHANG QINGYING, YU XIAOLIN, CHEN YULIANG, CAI ZIXI
• Format: Patent
• Language: Chinese; English
• Published: 11.06.2021
• Subjects: CALCULATING; COMPUTER SYSTEMS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS; COMPUTING; COUNTING; HEALTHCARE INFORMATICS, i.e. INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONTECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR THE HANDLING ORPROCESSING OF MEDICAL OR HEALTHCARE DATA; INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTEDFOR SPECIFIC APPLICATION FIELDS; PHYSICS

The embodiment of the invention discloses a dengue propagation risk prediction method. The method realizes the real-time updating of the state of a whole prediction system by constructing an SIR-EAKF coupling algorithm, corrects structural errors dynamically generated by a nonlinear model, reduces the sensitivity of parameter initial values in the model, and improves the accuracy and robustness of a prediction result. Through the coupling design of the EAKF algorithm and a mosquito media guided SIR model, the model and parameters are updated along with assimilation of an observation data stream, and accurate estimated values of state parameters are obtained, so that the coupling algorithm can accurately predict the dynamic change trend of the fashion and propagation of the dengue, the problems of high dependence on historical data and failure of a zero expansion time sequence in a traditional statistical model are avoided, and the problems of sensitivity of parameter initial values and nonlinear growth of mod