Method for analyzing uncertain risk in project progress

• Main Authors: SHI SHUANGYI, WANG XIAOLI, ZHANG XIANZHONG, MA QINGPO, NAN YUNPENG, HAN LI, WANG BEI, HAN GANG, LI XIN, WANG YOUHUI, DENG YANBO, JIN LIANG, LIN JIN, FAN HAIYUAN, YANG FANLIN, YANG CUIPING, TONG ZHENWEN, HUANG JIAN
• Format: Patent
• Language: Chinese; English
• Published: 04.09.2020
• Subjects: CALCULATING; COMPUTING; COUNTING; DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES; PHYSICS; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR

The invention discloses a method for analyzing an uncertain risk in a project progress. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, obtaining rainfall meteorological data of at least one natural year in recent five years of a project location; defining the daily or half-daily rainfall influencing the construction period; generating data required by Monte Carlo method simulation; carrying out simulation and rainfall influence calculation by adopting a Monte Carlo method; then uncertain risk analysis is carried out, and a risk probability expression is obtained through derivation; and substituting the known data into the risk probability expression to obtain the probability of uncertain risks. According to the method, the defects of traditional risk qualitative evaluation are overcome, the influence of subjective factors of project managers on evaluation results is reduced, and risk analysis is quantified; in the project management and control process or during bidding and progress plan making, the risk