Broken ship capsizing probability calculation method based on POT (peak over threshold)

• Main Authors: HU LIFEN, ZHANG KEZHENG, LI WUBIN, BI JUNYING, LYU WENBIN
• Format: Patent
• Language: Chinese; English
• Published: 26.11.2019
• Subjects: EQUIPMENT FOR SHIPPING; PERFORMING OPERATIONS; RELATED EQUIPMENT; SHIPS OR OTHER WATERBORNE VESSELS; TRANSPORTING

The invention relates to a broken ship capsizing probability calculation method based on POT (peak over threshold), and belongs to the technical field of broken ship capsizing probability calculationmethods based on the POT. The broken ship capsizing probability calculation method based on the POT includes following steps: 1, performing time domain calculation on the water entering process of a broken ship; and 2, performing capsizing probability evaluation based on the POT method for the broken ship in beam wind and beam sea. The core of the adopted POT method includes: selecting a small amount of data for analysis processing according to a threshold value, performing modeling for all observed values, exceeding the threshold value, in a sample, performing fitting on tail features of thedata, and achieving quick evaluation for ship safety. The broken ship capsizing probability calculation method based on the POT can assist a decision maker in performing high-speed decision and emergency response at the critic