Probability forecasting method and system for wind power

• Main Authors: WANG WEISHENG, HUA SHENBING, WANG ZHENG, MA ZHENQIANG, YANG HONGYING, SONG ZONGPENG, WANG BO, WANG SHU, WANG ZHAO, FENG SHUANGLEI, JIANG WENLING, JIN SHUANGLONG, ZHAO YANQING, LIU CHUN, CHE JIANFENG, HU JU
• Format: Patent
• Language: Chinese; English
• Published: 09.07.2019
• Subjects: CALCULATING; COMPUTING; COUNTING; DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES; ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING; PHYSICS; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR

The invention provides a probability forecasting method and system for wind power, and the method comprises the steps: extracting a wind speed sample from a pre-established wind speed probability density function model, inputting the wind speed sample into a pre-established wind speed and wind power conversion model, and obtaining the sample data of the wind power; performing kernel density estimation on the sample data of the wind power to obtain a kernel density estimation fitting probability density function of the wind power; and based on the kernel density estimation fitting probability density function, extracting a probability forecasting result from a preset confidence interval. The method comprises the following steps: extracting a wind speed sample from a pre-established wind speed probability density function model and inputting the wind speed sample into a pre-established wind speed-wind power conversion model; according to the method, the weather uncertainty information provided by the ensemble f